Methodology
How we forecast
Prediction markets proved the model works - $10B monthly volume, outperforming polls and pundits. We take those raw signals and translate them into intelligence you can act on.
Aggregate
Prediction market prices from Polymarket, Kalshi, and Metaculus. Macro data from FRED, ECB, ONS. Alternative data from property registries and trade flows.
Model
Proprietary probability models that weight market signals, fundamental data, and historical base rates. Every forecast has a confidence interval.
Interpret
Raw probabilities become portfolio-relevant intelligence. If/then scenario trees, cross-asset impact analysis, and actionable timeframes.
If
UK capital gains tax rises to 28% in 2027 Budget
Then
Mediterranean property demand from UK investors +15-22% within 18 months
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